The Party of No Ideas Smacks Down the Party of Bad Ideas

Looks like Clint Eastwood's empty chair skit at the RNC Convention turned into a prophecy, at least in the context of a presidential debate performance. As a liberty activist, I happily avoided the appallingly incomprehensible contest between Statist Clown A and Statist Clown B. However, I followed Twitter because that's where the laughs were, along with the agony of some apoplectic liberals and Democrats.

Mark Hemingway@Heminator That wasn't a debate so much as Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car. (Hemingway was quoting the Weekly Standard).

Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon Somebody call Todd Akin. Analyzing this debate requires a rape expert.

Bill Maher @billmaher Obama made a lot of great points tonight. Unfortunately, most of them were for Romney

Bill Maher @billmaher i must say, of all the Romneys i've seen, this Debate Romney is my favorite 

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald MSNBC tonight seems like a group therapy session for the deeply depressed and people with anger issues. It's actually disturbing to watch

Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon Right now, David Axelrod is asking a crying Barack Obama: "Show me on the doll where the bad man touched you."

Brian Sack@brian_sack MSNBC's flag at half mast.

VANITY FAIR @VanityFair Good LORD Obama wouldn't win a student council election against a chubby nerd with that closing argument.

As if the Twitter zingers weren't bad enough, there was the epic Chris Matthews meltdown.

Chris Matthews’ Epic Meltdown Over Obama Performance: ‘What Was He Doing Tonight?’

Clearly, Romney cleaned Obama's clock and he did it without even offering any solutions to any of our immense problems.  Only in America can somebody win a debate by offering no solutions to big problems, no cuts in government spending and advocating for perpetual war!

Oh well, it's America where substance is never ever on the table because it's all about packaging, party propaganda and one liners.  Still, Obama absolutely earned the thrashing he got from the left and the right.  An Obama super PAC donor may have summed it up best.

Big Super PAC Donor on Obama: 'Looks Like He Took My Million and Spent it All on Weed'

Obama even dipped on Intrade, the online gambling site, here. Still, Obama remains comfortably ahead on Intrade with a 65.2% probability of winning to Romney's 35.1.  However, polls are tightening in the critical swing states.  The general consensus of the pollsters and pundits is that the deal that was sealed for an easy Obama re-election is presently no longer a foregone conclusion.

To what extent the race is truly competitive remains unclear and will largely depend on the result of future debates.

As for America, the American people, the economy and our future, the prognosis remains quite grim because the endless wars and big bad government will prevail regardless of who wins in November.

Meanwhile, the bread and circuses continue because America really is the incarnation of the Roman Empire.   

The 2012 GOP Primary By the Numbers and the Future of Ballot Box Liberty

It's been a most disappointing 2012 Republican primary season for the dedicated liberty activists striving to restore the Constitution and liberty. Unfortunately, they hit a brick wall and that brick wall is the liberty hating Republican voting base.

2012 Republican Primary Votes:

Romney      9,809,662 or 53%
Santorum    3,909,460 or 21%
Gingrich      2,720,135 or 15%
Paul            2,063,043 or 11%

Total Votes 18,502,300

Source: Real Clear Politics

In 2008, Ron Paul got 1.1 million votes and 5.5% so his 2012 primary performance was a hugely significant improvement over 2008.  Still, establishment Republicans have declared WAR on the Republican liberty activists and claim that Ron Paul delegates deserve to be disenfranchised, which they were, because these delegates exceeded their actual representative on a proportional basis.

However, this assumption is totally flawed and contrary to how political parties operate. In fact, the social conservatives and religious right have been very successful, at least since the 1980's, in having representation in the Republican Party that exceeded their actual numbers. How did they do it? They simply became political grassroots activists, same as the Paulites, and showed up at precinct, county and state conventions to assert their power by playing by the RNC's own rules. It was a very effective strategy.

In analyzing the Republican Party, it's best to understand its ideological composition which contains 3 legs, 2 big legs and one small leg.

The 3 legs of the Republican Party:

1. The commie, neocon, fascist Rockefeller R's (Mittens, Bush) - they murder in the name of the state, empire, resources and fascism while ruthlessly imposing totalitarian tyranny everywhere, including America.

2. The commie, neocon, fascist theocratic Warvangelical R's (Sanitorium, Huckabee) - these pagan fake Christians murder in the name of a deity, while ruthlessly imposing totalitarian tyranny everywhere, including America.

3. The Constitutional liberty activists who want peace, liberty and prosperity - something you will never get from the Rockefeller and Warvangelical R's.

Furthermore, the 2 big legs of the Republican Party combined forces and declared war on the liberty activists.  It was a war that they won but what did they really win?  We'll know in November.

It's important to note that the Democratic Party is pretty much identical to the Rockefeller Republicans. However, the Warvangelicals are also quite similar to the Democratic Party with their overt and profound social intolerance being the only difference.  Still, it's a significant difference that fires up irrational passions on both sides.

So what chance does liberty stand in this cesspool of statist warmongering liberty slashing collectivists?

While Lady Liberty has definitely lost another battle, she hasn't lost the war because the liberty movement is growing and its growth is siphoning off voters from both the left and the right.

Do liberty activists have any ballot box power? It's a valid question and one that will undoubtedly be definitively answered in the November general election. In 2008, Obama defeated McCain 53% to 46% and by a staggering 9.5 million votes.

Unquestionably, the Republican Party does not have the advantage in 2012 as it lags in critical swing states according to all the polls. However, the greater question is can the Republican Party afford to lose the 2 million plus Ron Paul supporters, most of whom will not be voting Republican in November?

The Republican Party has calculated, perhaps erroneously, that it still has a solid and cohesive base that can and will deliver general election victories. Moreover, the Republican Party absolutely believes that the Paulites and liberty activist really aren't Republicans, never were Republicans and that these rogue rabble rousers attempted to illegally invade and and occupy the Republican Party.

As a liberty activist who has never voted for a Democrat, I can categorically state that I absolutely will not vote Republican in November because I'm morally compelled to reject statism, socialism, wars, empire, collectivism, corporate welfare and the wholesale destruction of civil liberties (NDAA, Patriot Act).

How alone am I? I really don't know but my guess is that I'll have 2 million or so voters standing right beside me in rejecting Republican tyranny.

Meanwhile, the Revolution for liberty continues!

The Polls are NOT Looking Good for Mittens and it's Not Too Late to Nominate Ron Paul

While it's early in the presidential campaign season and the RNC and DNC national conventions are still a month away, it's not too late for Republicans to change their minds and nominate the only Republican who can defeat Obama - Ron Paul!

In 2008, Obama won 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. That's a total blowout. The gamblers at Intrade, the online gambling company, predicted Obama would win with 364 electoral votes. Intrade was way more accurate than the pundits and pollsters, as noted by the New York Times.

Bettors Beat Pundits

Four years later, it's unlikely that Obama will win by such a whopper of a margin in his bid for reelection, if he wins at all. However, the prospects are excellent that Obama could starve off a Romney victory.

Right now the Intrade bettors are giving Obama a 57.4% probability of winning and Romney a 40.5.

The Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 1.3 but the polls are all over the place.  In any event, the national polls are practically meaningless and what is important is what happens in the critical swing states.  The 2012 president election outcome will be entirely dependent on 6-8 critical swing states.  The top pundits dissect the polls and focus on the electoral count in the individual states.  Three of the top pundits are Nate Silver (New York Times), Larry Sabato (Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Stuart Rothenberg (Rothenberg Political Report).

Nate Silver has Obama winning with 294 electoral votes to Romney's 244 and gives Obama a 67.4% probability of winning to Romney's 32.6.  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, is here.

Larry Sabato has Obama with 247 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 85 toss-ups.  Sabato's analysis and maps are here.

Stuart Rothenberg has Obama with 237 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 95 toss-up.  Rothenberg's analysis is here.

Many states are so reliably blue or red that the outcome is a given.  Once the election kicks into high gear, however, the analysis will intensely concentrate on the following swing states with 100 electoral votes.

Florida             29 RCP average have Obama up by 6
Ohio                18 RCP averages have Obama up by 5
North Carolina 15 RCP averages have Romney up by .4
Virginia            13 RCP averages have Obama up by 1.2
Wisconsin       10  RCP averages have Obama up by 6
Colorado           9 RCP averages have Obama up by 3
Nevada             6 RCP averages have Obama up by 5.3
New Hampshire 4 RCP averages have Obama up by 3

Source:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Romney is only ahead in one swing state and by less than half a point!

At this juncture, things aren't looking good at all for the Republican Party based on the polls, the pundits and Intrade.

To make matters worse, Romney had a disastrous trip to London and got badly panned by the Brits and their media.