Intrade Gamblers Beat the Pollsters and Pundits in 2008 and Has Obama Comfortably Ahead in 2012

In 2008, the professional election pundits and pollsters contemptuously thumbed their noses at Intrade, the online gambling site. It was inconceivable that ordinary bettors could possibly best America's most astute and brilliant election pundits and pollsters. But in the end it was the Intrade gamblers had the last laugh in 2008. The Intrade gamblers got closer than anybody on their calls and by a wide margin. They predicted that Obama would win with 364 electoral votes. Obama won with 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173.

In 2008 Intrade had given Obama a 65% probability of winning, here.

The New York Times chirped in on the issue and acknowledged that its own highly respected pundit, Nate Silver, was off by 18 electoral votes.

Bettors Beat Pundits

Fast forward to 2012. Right now Intrade gamblers are giving Obama a 57.1% probability of winning in November to Romneys' 42.5%. Obama isn't quite as strong as he was in 2008 but the Man of Change who didn't change a damn thing is still comfortably ahead even through he will lose some of the red to purple states that he managed to flip to blue in 2008.

Colorado 54:45
Florida 51:48
Nevada  55:43
New Hampshire 54:45
New Mexico 57:42
North Carolina 50:49
Ohio 51:47
Virginia 53:46

The current Intrade numbers have pretty much remained the same throughout the 2012 election season and after the fiasco known as the RNC Convention, Romney just can't seize on anything that could deliver a sustainable bump.  The customarily staid, flip flopping and boring Romney fails to inspire any voter excitement and ditto for his equally boring VP choice.  Paul Ryan is coming under attack from a variety of ideological sides on issues ranging from his lies about running a marathon in under 3 hours to his insanely convoluted and big spending budget that doesn't even balance the budget until 2040 while spending trillions on the wars and military.

Obama has definitely incurred the wrath of the largely anti-war Democratic base over his continuation of Bush/Cheney foreign policy while starting new military interventions but the Republican base can't seem to want for anything except more wars.  By appeasing the Republican base, Romney succeeded in alienating independent voters.  Then there's the GOP's vicious treatment of the 2 million plus Ron Paul supporters who were literally run out of the Republican Party and the RNC Convention.

Romney and the Republican Party may be in dire need of holding on to every possible constituent voting block to even stand a chance of winning in November but they instead have opted to pursue a policy of arrogance and utter contempt for those conservatives who refuse to toe the party line by questioning the sanity of its big government agenda.

The GOP's scorched earth policy will indeed butt heads with the scorched earth policy of conservative liberty activists who are so incensed that their only goal is to guarantee that the Republican Party loses in November.

The GOP's Death Wish

A lot of Republican liberty activists and Libertarians saw the handwriting on the wall in 2006 when the GOP lose the House of Representatives. The GOP operates under the delusion that it has a solidly committed base and it only needs to get out the vote to win elections. This is not only a boneheaded assumption, it's dead wrong. It's wrong because the GOP never understood it's own volatile base and automatically presumed that the Republican base was nothing but a bunch of religious right whackos who just need to hear candidates unleash venomous attacks on the social issues and 'Bingo', they would win an election.

The truth is that the GOP base has always been a complex and mixed bag of diverse constituencies including libertarians, independents, fiscal conservatives, Buchananites, paleo-conservatives, constitutionalists and other disgruntled factions who once aligned with the Republican Party, mostly out of desperation and the fact that the Republican Party was once deemed the lesser of the two evils.

What happened in 2006 and again in 2008 is that all those ticked off and angry disgruntled conservatives and libertarians could no longer even hold their noses and vote Republican like they once did. They revolted.  In fact, these voters finally decided that the lesser of the 2 evils is still evil.

Cato made an astute observation on the impact of the libertarian vote on the GOP in 2006.

Losing Libertarians

President Bush and his colleagues are telling voters that no matter how unhappy they are with Republicans, they'll like Democrats even less.

But evidence from around the country suggests that even if the conservatives come home to the Republican Party, the GOP could still lose Congress by losing libertarian voters.

Take a look at independent voters. There are more of them than before, especially in the West. More than 25 percent of Arizona voters now register as independent or third-party voters. And according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, they've shifted sharply toward the Democrats in this fall's elections.

But independents haven't fallen in love with the Democrats. They seem to be motivated more by dissatisfaction with Republicans than enthusiasm for Democrats.

If the situation was bad for the Republican Party in 2006 and 2008, it's going to be even worse in 2012 given the rise of the Ron Paul movement that has captivated the young.  A platform of peace, liberty and prosperity is a campaign theme that rings loud and clear.  Americans are fed up with the wars, crony capitalism, assaults on civil liberties, bankster bailouts and massive corruption.

But it's 2012 and the GOP once again thinks that all it needs to do is get its base fired up and to the ballot box.

What base?  The GOP base is permanently splintered and fractured.

The GOP has lost the independent vote, the female vote, the fiscal conservative vote, the anti-war vote, the constitutionalist vote and a whole lot of other voters who really did once hold their noses and dutifully vote Republican.

Those days are long gone.  Yet, the RNC/GOP machines have the blazing audacity to go out of their way and overtly employ fraud and treachery to disenfranchise the Ron Paul supporters and libertarians.

Chasing away the remnants of a dwindling base is not a strategy for winning elections.  But that is precisely what the Republican Party had done.

Ultimately, I believe that liberty activists will succeed in taking over the GOP machines, county by county and state by state.  The Paulites already took over the GOP machines in IA, MN, ME and NV, even though establishment Republicans are still working damn hard to kick the Ron Paul delegates out of Tampa.

What's left of the GOP is not a pretty sight.  The general perception is that the heart and soul of the GOP, as it is presently constituted,  is the socially intolerant Warvangelicals who lust for endless wars, theocracy and big bad government.  It's not a stretch to assert that the American people are indeed thoroughly disgusted with these folks and consider them vile.  Voters may not be pleased with Obama and Gang but they also fear the the Republican nutjobs who booed when Ron Paul suggesting invoking the Golden Rule on foreign policy.

In a nutshell, the Republican Party is just too damn scary for most Americans.

Paul Ryan's Voting Record Will Not Please Liberty Activists

Mittens picked Paul Ryan as his running mate and sent a press release to the media “Mitt’s Choice for VP is Paul Ryan.”. This neocon union will be celebrated at the navel base in Norfolk, VA today and include a tour the USS Wisconsin (Ryan's home state).

The military theme of the announcement is indeed chilling. Ryan is a solid neocon, a solid big government statist, a solid abuser of civil liberties and a HUGE proponent of of unbridled military spending.

Highlights of the voting record of Paul Ryan

Voted YES corporate welfare for big agriculture

Aug. 2, 2012 HR 6233 Agricultural Disaster Assistance Act of 2012 Bill Passed - House (223 - 197) Yea

Voted YES for a bloated defense bill

July 19, 2012 HR 5856 Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2013 Bill Passed - House (326 - 90) Yea

Voted NO to repeal NDAA indefinite detention

May 18, 2012 H Amdt 1127 Repeals Indefinite Military Detention Provisions Amendment Rejected - House (182 - 238) Nay

Voted YES to prohibit reductions in nuclear weapons as required by START Treaty

May 18, 2012 H Amdt 1140 Prohibits Reductions to Strategic Nuclear Arms Required by New START Amendment Adopted - House (238 - 162) Yea

Noted NO to limit military spending on the Afghanistan War

May 17, 2012 H Amdt 1103 Limits Funding for War in Afghanistan to the Withdrawal of U.S. Forces Amendment Rejected - House (113 - 303) Nay

Voted YES to override military sequestration (spending cuts) negotiated in last year's 'let raise the debt limit bill'.

May 10, 2012 HR 5652 Sequester Replacement Reconciliation Act of 2012 Bill Passed - House (218 - 199) Yea

Voted YES on CISPA, the bill that attacks Internet liberty and the 1st amendment.

April 26, 2012 HR 3523 Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act Bill Passed - House (248 - 168) Yea

Voted YES on corporate welfare for the Keystone Pipeline which also authorized the use of Eminent Domain to seize private property for a private use.

April 18, 2012 HR 4348 Extension of Surface Transportation Funding and Approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline Bill Passed - House (293 - 127) Yea

Voted NO to extend payroll tax cuts which is effectively a tax increase on the poor and middle class.

Feb. 17, 2012 HR 3630 Extends Payroll Tax Cut Conference Report Adopted - House (293 - 132) Nay Voted YES to encourage that the words "In God We Trust" be displayed in all public schools.

Nov. 1, 2011 H Con Res 13 Encourages Display of "In God We Trust" in Public Buildings and Schools Resolution Passed - House (396 - 9) Yea

Voted YES on a corporatist trade agreement with Columbia, Panama and Korea.

Oct. 12, 2011 HR 3078 Trade Promotion Agreement with Colombia Bill Passed - House (262 - 167) Yea Oct. 12, 2011 HR 3079 Trade Promotion Agreement with Panama Bill Passed - House (300 - 129) Yea

Oct. 12, 2011 HR 3080 Free Trade Agreement with Korea Bill Passed - House (278 - 151) Yea

Voted YES to increase the debt ceiling

July 29, 2011 S 627 Increasing the Debt Ceiling (Boehner Bill) Bill Passed - House (218 - 210) Yea

Voted YES on war in Libya

June 24, 2011 H J Res 68 Authorizes Limited Use of US Armed Forces in Libya Joint Resolution Failed - House (123 - 295) Nay

Voted NO to limit funding of NATO for use in Libya

June 24, 2011 HR 2278 Limits the Use of Funds in Support of NATO Operations in Libya Bill Failed - House (180 - 238) Nay Voted YES for ground forces in Libya

June 3, 2011 H Res 292 Ground Forces in Libya Resolution Passed - House (268 - 145) Yea

Voted NO on removing armed forces from Libya

June 3, 2011 H Con Res 51 Removing Armed Forces from Libya Resolution Failed - House (148 - 265) Nay

Vote YES to extend the Patriot Act

May 26, 2011 S 990 Patriot Act Extension Concurrence Vote Passed - House (250 - 153) Yea

More on Paul Ryan's voting record