Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Why Romney backers never saw it coming


  


Adios Mittens. It truly is shocking to me that the Romney campaign with its seemingly inexhaustible supply of money that bought the top political consultants, the top pollsters, the top political organizers and the best of everything that any political campaign could possibly want was so utterly clueless at all levels that they never even considered defeat a possibility. Whether one chooses to chalk it up to stupidity or arrogance is the hot topic of post election speculation.  This extraordinary piece by Kevin Carson, a senior fellow of the Center for a Stateless Society, nails it in all its gory glory. Carson doesn't focus on the election but rather on attitudes of the elites embedded in the corporatist culture.

Why Romney backers never saw it coming
In an interview with Ezra Klein (“Romney is Wall Street’s worst bet since the bet on subprime,” Washington Post, Nov. 28), Chrystia Freeland — author of The Plutocrats — commented on the sheer level of shock and disbelief among the moneyed classes after Romney’s defeat.
That prompted Klein to ask: “These folks … are purportedly very data focused, very good at assimilating new information. So I find it genuinely scary that neither Romney nor his super-rich backers had any idea he was going to lose. All the polls, all the models, all the betting markets said he was likely to lose. How did a group of people who, in their jobs, have to be willing to read and respond to disappointing data convince themselves to ignore every piece of data we had?”
Freeland described it as “astonishing” and “mystifying,” adding that these same people had made the same miscalculation in their roles as managers and investors: “… it was also the case that all the smartest guys in the room managed to lose a lot of money in 2008 and managed to convince themselves of a set of very mistaken beliefs about where the markets where going to go. It was a lot of the same people on the wrong side of both bets."
But there’s really nothing astonishing about either case. That these people with MBA degrees and long careers climbing management ladders could be so abysmally wrong in their predictions is a textbook example of how power, by its very nature, creates stupidity and irrationality.
As Freeland observes, Romney and his backers have internalized a legitimizing ideology in which all the things that are best for the American economy are — entirely coincidentally — also in their own self-interest.
The very act of getting rich (“my success,” as Romney put it) is “an act of civic virtue.” They’re the “job creators,” after all. Billionaires see themselves as a class of the best and brightest — tough thinkers who make the hard, thankless decisions, “having an extremely unique set of skills that sets them apart from everybody else, and it’s partly brainpower, but they all see it as crucially including an ability to judge and take risks and work very hard.”
This social and political ideology is a powerful form of groupthink that filters what its adherents perceive about the world. It’s just as powerful inside institutional hierarchies like the giant corporation as in the political arena.
One central function of a hierarchy is to filter the upward flow of information — to tell naked emperors how great their new clothes look.
Power distorts information flow because, as R. A. Wilson observed, nobody tells the truth to someone with a gun. Authority relations result in one-way information flows, preventing decisionmakers from receiving accurate feedback on the real effects of their decisions. As Kenneth Boulding put it, those at the tops of hierarchies tend to live in almost completely imaginary worlds.
As a result those at the tops of pyramids generally communicate much more effectively with their peers at the tops of other pyramids than with their subordinates in the pyramid below.
CEOs tend to make policies based on the “best practices” of other hierarchical institutions in the same industry. They evaluate their effectiveness based on the enthusiastic propaganda from other CEOs about how well it’s working in their own organizations — despite the fact that those other CEOs are equally clueless about the real effects of their policies.
I’ve lost count of the number of columnists and talking heads who observed that Romney visibly bristled when debate moderators like Candy Crowley talked back to him. He was used to being surrounded by subordinates who were afraid to tell him anything he didn’t want to hear. Seriously, how would you like to be the person on Romney’s staff who tells him his proposal is a stupid idea, or why it didn’t work?
How are businesses run by managers like this gang of idiots able to stay in business? The same way Soviet factories and industrial ministries were able to stay “in business”: By playing in a rigged game.
The U.S. economy isn’t a free market. It’s a corporate capitalist market, heavily cartelized and subsidized by the state, so that each industry is dominated by a handful of giant firms sharing the same pathological culture. The system is designed to socialize risk and cost, and privatize profit, so that natural born idjuts (excuse me, “successful job creators”) like Mittens can spend their entire lives living in bubbles, being told exactly what they want to hear, without suffering any ill effects.
Kevin Carson is a senior fellow of the Center for a Stateless Society and holds the Center’s Karl Hess chair in Social Theory.

Friday, November 9, 2012

It's time to FOCUS on Restoring the GOP to the Party of Liberty


The crushing defeat of the Republican Party on election day has obviously unleashed a barrage of questions and commentary. Where did the GOP go wrong? In my humble opinion, the Republican Party failed miserably at distinguishing itself from the Democratic Party. Moreover, the baggage of the intolerant social conservatives, the Republican addiction to spending and the label of being the War Party weighed heavily in the GOP's defeat. The Republican Party is a turn off for voters and the GOP was hit especially hard on demographics by losing the youth vote, the female vote and the minority vote.  In many ways, the GOP is viewed as the party of old, white, gray and dying establishment Republicans as noted in a piece titled GOP Challenge: How to Transcend Aging White Base.

One thing is clear. The GOP has BIG problems that were succinctly and accurately summarized by a Facebook friend.  
The GOP is now made up of 3 factions. The old guard, which I completely reject, the Tea Party, which I almost completely reject due to their batshit crazy tendencies, and the Libertarian wing which I fully endorse.
The war for the soul of the Republican Party has begun. If the Libertarian wing doesn't prevail, the GOP is headed straight to the trash heap of permanent extinction because of a vanishing base. While the Washington Post came out with Republican Party begins election review to find out what went wrong, a far more interesting analysis lays out what needs to be done.

Tea Party: No More Doles, McCains, Romneys
Following President Barack Obama’s re-election victory on Tuesday, one Tea Party group is vowing “no retreat” in its quest to find candidates with “clear conservative records” instead of “weak-kneed” Republicans.

“We’ve had Bob Dole, we’ve had (Gerald) Ford, we had (John) McCain, and now we did (Mitt) Romney, and they lost…because those guys do not necessarily reflect what I think the majority of conservatives, probably the majority of Americans, truly believe,” said Scottie Hughes, news director for the Tea Party News Network.

Hughes added that a desirable conservative candidate is someone who advocates “core principles,” such as liberty, freedom, and limited government, which were so important to the Founding Fathers.

Todd Cefaratti, a TPNN editor, says he knows what conservatives need to do to regain control of the White House: “The Tea Party has not yet begun to fight. It’s time for a wholesale reassessment of the D.C. establishment politicians and party grandees who have no commitment or courage to reduce the size of government,” Cefaratti said.

“[But] unfortunately, time and time again the establishment Republican Party continually keeps putting these candidates [forward], saying, ‘This is who we need to support.’ And most of the time those are usually not the folks who represent true conservative Republican values,” said Hughes.

Hughes said that if conservative and libertarian groups found a way to combine forces, they might be able to settle on a candidate who could win without the need to appeal to moderates.
Bingo!

Therein lies the hope for resurrecting the GOP from the utter destruction wrought upon it by the arrogant party elites who hold the will of the conservative base in the highest contempt.  Also, Republican salvation definitely won't be coming from theocratic candidates like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum.  The Republican Party needs to ditch its 'bat shit crazies' who advocate for theocracy, social intolerance, endless wars and a military empire.  The theocon/neocon axis must be broken and consigned to the trash heap of history.

Conservatives are different than Democrats. A Democrat will vote for any idiot their party runs but conservatives absolutely will not. Conservatives will gleefully and vigorously punish their party for running big government and big spending Republican statists, and that's precisely what happened on election night.

For decades conservatives have been voting for what they perceived as less government but all they ever got was more Republican spending, more deficits and a big pile of debt. The crop of Tea Party Republicans that won big in 2010 ended up spending more than the Democrats they replaced, here.  The decline and fall of the Republican Party dates all the way back to the Reagan era.

What Went Wrong with the Republican Party? Reagan Ruined the Republican Party and Fiscal Conservatism
Lew Rockwell published this gem of a 1992 piece by Murray Rothbard describing the fall of the Republican Party as fiscal conservatives. The article documents the turning point of the Republican Party under Reagan. Frankly, I never understood why Reagan is so revered by Republicans. Reagan massively increased spending and taxes. In many way, the Reagan era paved the way for the Republican Party nightmare that currently exists - nothing but a party of one big socialist spending orgy. As it turns out, the Gipper was one big graft machine who loved big government.

Repudiating the National Debt

In the spring of 1981, conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives cried. They cried because, in the first flush of the Reagan Revolution that was supposed to bring drastic cuts in taxes and government spending, as well as a balanced budget, they were being asked by the White House and their own leadership to vote for an increase in the statutory limit on the federal public debt, which was then scraping the legal ceiling of $1 trillion. They cried because all of their lives they had voted against an increase in public debt, and now they were being asked, by their own party and their own movement, to violate their lifelong principles. The White House and its leadership assured them that this breach in principle would be their last: that it was necessary for one last increase in the debt limit to give President Reagan a chance to bring about a balanced budget and to begin to reduce the debt. Many of these Republicans tearfully announced that they were taking this fateful step because they deeply trusted their president, who would not let them down.

Famous last words. In a sense, the Reagan handlers were right: there were no more tears, no more complaints, because the principles themselves were quickly forgotten, swept into the dustbin of history.
On Tuesday night, November 6, 2012, true conservatives just couldn't take it any longer. They were sick to death of years and decades of lies, spending, deficits and debt. Conservatives finally found the courage to just let the Republican Party loose, something that was long overdue.

Frankly, I'm proud of conservatives for finally doing something they should have done a long time ago. They finally had the testicular fortitude to fire their own damn party because the lesser of the two evils is still evil.

It's time for We the People to take back the Republican Party and toss out the frauds and traitors who betrayed the constitution and the principles of federalism and limited federal powers.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Romney Blasts Businesses Started in a Garage and Gets Blasted Back



Mitt Romney is getting blasted for taking a swipe at businesses started in a garage.  What the heck is Mittens thinking?

Mitt Romney Is Wrong: Garage-Based Businesses Are Great
The most infuriating moment of the presidential debate hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves.

hat moment was when Governor Romney, the Republican, in response to a question about regulation, declared it “essential” and went on, “You couldn’t have people opening up banks in their — in their garage and making loans.”

That sound you heard during the debate was the echo of me ripping my hair out while throwing my drink at the television in frustration at the idea of a Republican presidential nominee who portrays himself as the defender of free markets yet who also describes garage-based businesses as a grave danger that must be regulated out of existence.
Ira Stoll's Reason.com article also appeared in Time, here, and the New York Sun, here.  Some incredibly successful businesses started in a garage, including:

Apple, Google, Mattel, HP, Amazon, Disney, Microsoft, MagLite, Yankee Candle Co. and Harley Davidson.

Read the rest here.

Just because Bain Capital didn't hail from beginnings as humble as a garage, basement or barn is no reason to diss those entrepreneurs who frequently succeeded and succeeded big.


Saturday, October 6, 2012

The Party of No Ideas Smacks Down the Party of Bad Ideas




Looks like Clint Eastwood's empty chair skit at the RNC Convention turned into a prophecy, at least in the context of a presidential debate performance. As a liberty activist, I happily avoided the appallingly incomprehensible contest between Statist Clown A and Statist Clown B. However, I followed Twitter because that's where the laughs were, along with the agony of some apoplectic liberals and Democrats.

Mark Hemingway@Heminator That wasn't a debate so much as Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car. (Hemingway was quoting the Weekly Standard).

Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon Somebody call Todd Akin. Analyzing this debate requires a rape expert.

Bill Maher @billmaher Obama made a lot of great points tonight. Unfortunately, most of them were for Romney

Bill Maher @billmaher i must say, of all the Romneys i've seen, this Debate Romney is my favorite 

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald MSNBC tonight seems like a group therapy session for the deeply depressed and people with anger issues. It's actually disturbing to watch

Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon Right now, David Axelrod is asking a crying Barack Obama: "Show me on the doll where the bad man touched you."

Brian Sack@brian_sack MSNBC's flag at half mast.

VANITY FAIR @VanityFair Good LORD Obama wouldn't win a student council election against a chubby nerd with that closing argument.

As if the Twitter zingers weren't bad enough, there was the epic Chris Matthews meltdown.

Chris Matthews’ Epic Meltdown Over Obama Performance: ‘What Was He Doing Tonight?’

Clearly, Romney cleaned Obama's clock and he did it without even offering any solutions to any of our immense problems.  Only in America can somebody win a debate by offering no solutions to big problems, no cuts in government spending and advocating for perpetual war!

Oh well, it's America where substance is never ever on the table because it's all about packaging, party propaganda and one liners.  Still, Obama absolutely earned the thrashing he got from the left and the right.  An Obama super PAC donor may have summed it up best.

Big Super PAC Donor on Obama: 'Looks Like He Took My Million and Spent it All on Weed'

Obama even dipped on Intrade, the online gambling site, here. Still, Obama remains comfortably ahead on Intrade with a 65.2% probability of winning to Romney's 35.1.  However, polls are tightening in the critical swing states.  The general consensus of the pollsters and pundits is that the deal that was sealed for an easy Obama re-election is presently no longer a foregone conclusion.

To what extent the race is truly competitive remains unclear and will largely depend on the result of future debates.

As for America, the American people, the economy and our future, the prognosis remains quite grim because the endless wars and big bad government will prevail regardless of who wins in November.

Meanwhile, the bread and circuses continue because America really is the incarnation of the Roman Empire.   

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Frick and Frack, Dis and Dat - Drain the Swamp and Vote Third Party




As a Ron Paul supporter, many of us have been frustrated with the anarcho-capitalist voluntarist wing of the Libertarian movement because many of these folks simply refuse to politically engage or even vote.  They make a perfectly valid point "why bother to vote when nothing ever changes".  It's tough to argue with such logic.  The more things change, the more they remain the same.  Americans keep voting for change but the change never comes.

To be sure, there won't be any change if Obama is re-elected or even if Romney manages to pull off a miracle and defy the odds in a race where he is a clear underdog.  The polls are not looking good for Romney and every major election pundit agrees that the advantage definitely goes to Obama.  Moreover, the gamblers at Intrade.com give Obama a comfortable probability of being elected of 58.1% to a 41.7% probability for Romney.  No one should knock the Intrade gamblers.  They beat every pundit in 2008 and by a wide margin.  Intrade predicted that Obama would win with 364 electoral votes, he got 365.  Nobody got that close.

So here we are again.  It's another presidential election year and the choices are miserable.  Well, they really aren't all that miserable and the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, is a very decent candidate who shares a lot of Ron Paul's views.  Yeah, Gary Johnson isn't Ron Paul but who is?  Nobody.

For those among us who consider themselves liberty activists, it's best to vote for the strongest liberty candidate because this strikes a blow at the entrenched power structures of the corrupt RNC and DNC machines that tend to cavalierly marginalize 3rd parties as irrelevant because they just haven't taken off in big enough numbers to signal any real threat to the two party system.

No third party in America stands any chance of winning a presidential election.  But voting third party shouts "I'm here, I'm politically active and I intend to fight the corrupt two party system".  If anything, the third party voters take away votes from both the Republican and Democratic Parties and disemboweling the two headed monster is the act of self-preservation.  .

The Republican and Democratic Parties don't care if folks don't vote so long as they don't vote third party.  However, if third parties start to register alarming percentages that constitute a real threat to R and D absolute power, the grassroots within both parties will be vastly strengthened as will the power of independent voters.  

While I understand why folks refuse to vote and accept that I cannot possibly change their minds, those of us who do vote and participate in the political cesspool have a lot at stake here.  Defeating Romney strikes a most deserving blow at the GOP.  Four more years of Obama and Gang is better than 8  years of worthless statist neocon Republican socialists.

My choice:  Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Intrade Gamblers Beat the Pollsters and Pundits in 2008 and Has Obama Comfortably Ahead in 2012



In 2008, the professional election pundits and pollsters contemptuously thumbed their noses at Intrade, the online gambling site. It was inconceivable that ordinary bettors could possibly best America's most astute and brilliant election pundits and pollsters. But in the end it was the Intrade gamblers had the last laugh in 2008. The Intrade gamblers got closer than anybody on their calls and by a wide margin. They predicted that Obama would win with 364 electoral votes. Obama won with 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173.

In 2008 Intrade had given Obama a 65% probability of winning, here.

The New York Times chirped in on the issue and acknowledged that its own highly respected pundit, Nate Silver, was off by 18 electoral votes.

Bettors Beat Pundits

Fast forward to 2012. Right now Intrade gamblers are giving Obama a 57.1% probability of winning in November to Romneys' 42.5%. Obama isn't quite as strong as he was in 2008 but the Man of Change who didn't change a damn thing is still comfortably ahead even through he will lose some of the red to purple states that he managed to flip to blue in 2008.

Colorado 54:45
Florida 51:48
Nevada  55:43
New Hampshire 54:45
New Mexico 57:42
North Carolina 50:49
Ohio 51:47
Virginia 53:46

The current Intrade numbers have pretty much remained the same throughout the 2012 election season and after the fiasco known as the RNC Convention, Romney just can't seize on anything that could deliver a sustainable bump.  The customarily staid, flip flopping and boring Romney fails to inspire any voter excitement and ditto for his equally boring VP choice.  Paul Ryan is coming under attack from a variety of ideological sides on issues ranging from his lies about running a marathon in under 3 hours to his insanely convoluted and big spending budget that doesn't even balance the budget until 2040 while spending trillions on the wars and military.

Obama has definitely incurred the wrath of the largely anti-war Democratic base over his continuation of Bush/Cheney foreign policy while starting new military interventions but the Republican base can't seem to want for anything except more wars.  By appeasing the Republican base, Romney succeeded in alienating independent voters.  Then there's the GOP's vicious treatment of the 2 million plus Ron Paul supporters who were literally run out of the Republican Party and the RNC Convention.

Romney and the Republican Party may be in dire need of holding on to every possible constituent voting block to even stand a chance of winning in November but they instead have opted to pursue a policy of arrogance and utter contempt for those conservatives who refuse to toe the party line by questioning the sanity of its big government agenda.

The GOP's scorched earth policy will indeed butt heads with the scorched earth policy of conservative liberty activists who are so incensed that their only goal is to guarantee that the Republican Party loses in November.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Lady Liberty Gets Gang Raped by RNC, Teleprompter Approves Nazi Rule Changes




Clearly, it's been a miserable summer for liberty activists and the Paulites. We've been disenfranchised, smacked, slapped and stomped on by the Republican enemies of liberty. However, this afternoon the RNC delivered its grand gang rape to Lady Liberty via a teleprompter vote that made permanent Nazi style RNC rule changes.

 The Ayes Have It: Boehner Ignores Voice Vote, Makes Decision Via Teleprompter
“The ayes have it.”

Tuesday afternoon, House Speaker John Boehner called for a vote on a Resolution to Adopt the Rules of the Convention, as written, at the Republican National Convention. When he asked if there were any objections, it was clear from the floor and from those watching at home that delegates were objecting, but Boehner continued on, as if he had not heard them at all.

Boehner proceeded with the vote. The results of the vote were once again very clear, with a huge uproar of folks shouting, “nay!” from the floor. Boehner said, “the ayes have it”, even though it was obvious that the “nays” were far more numerous. Why?

Witnesses on the floor say that the teleprompter scrolled the words, “the ayes have it” before the nay vote was even called."
All I can say is WOW.  These draconian rules changes effectively  concentrate all GOP power into the hands of a few ruling elites for the purpose of forever banning any challenges to their CFR and NWO candidates.  The RNC will now have the absolute power to veto any delegates it doesn't like or want.

All Republicans grassroots initiatives have been systematically squashed.

Gee, silly me thought the purpose of the primary was for We the People to select our candidates.  Well, We the People just got gang raped along with the Lady Liberty.

Any sane, decent, moral and honorable person must immediately sever all ties with the Republican Party.

The Republican Party has officially morphed into the Nazi Party.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Progressive/Liberals/Dems are the Original Neocons



I've literally spent years and years pondering "How in the heck did the Republican Party morph into the warmongering, big spending and anti-liberty nightmare that it is today?"

Who got us into WW I, WW II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and the Balkan Wars? All progressive liberal Democrats - Wilson, Roosevelt, Truman, Johnson and Clinton.

How much blood is on the hands of the Democrat warmongers?  A lot and they left a bloody trail of carnage that consumed over 100 million lives.

Let’s Do War by the Numbers Because We Love to Kill
WW I resulted in the deaths of 35,000,000...

Of course, WW I only set the stage for WW II that killed at least another 50,000,000 folks (many historians put the WW II death toll at 60-70 million)....

Wikipedia estimates the deaths from the Korean War at 2,500,000 – 3,500,000 and the deaths from the Vietnam War at 2,500,000-6,000,000...

Since the end of WW II, another 20,000,000 to 30,000,000 folks have died as a direct result of U.S. foreign interventionism.
It was Woodrow Wilson and the Democrats who gave us the Federal Reserve and the 16th Amendment (income tax) in 1913. It was no accident that WW I broke out in 1914 and the details of that sordid 'bailout the rich' scheme are well documented.  Without the Federal Reserve, there would have been no WW I.  Moreover,  the Federal Reserve Act was indeed the enabling legislation that actually birthed the military industrial complex and not by accident.  It was all about war profits for America's wealthiest families and the 1% (the only beneficiaries of any war).

World War I, the Banksters, the Lusitania and Bailing Out America’s Wealthiest Families

Interestingly, I witnessed my own Democratic Irish Catholic family abandon the Democratic Party and become Reagan Republicans, largely because blue collar working class families such as mine were sick and tired of having their kids who were drafted into the US military come home from Vietnam in body bags or badly mangled from combat and war injuries.  They not only feared Democrat foreign policy, they were also extremely fearful of the growth in government power and spending.

When the Republican Party was pro-peace and anti-foreign intervention, it experienced the support of the people. How much support? Reagan's 489 electoral votes to Carter's 49 in 1980 and a 51% to 41% victory speaks volumes!





Source: US Election Atlas

Reagan was viewed as the great hope to restore America to fiscal and foreign policy sanity. Unfortunately, he was a big fail. Few Americans are even aware of the extent to which taxes and the Federal Reserve fund the wars and foreign policy.

Taxes are US. The Biggest Tax Increases in US History
The largest tax increases were imposed by Truman (Revenue Act of 1950, Revenue Act 1951 and Excess Profits Tax of 1950) to fund the Korean War. Johnson's two taxes, the Temporary Surcharge of 1968 and the Tax Increase of 1966, were imposed on the American people to fund the Vietnam War.

Reagan, revered by Republicans for his extensive taxation and spending, piled on 5 new and substantial tax increases and is probably the biggest taxing president in US history.

Reagan taxes:

Tax Increase of 1983
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984
Tax Reform Act of 1986
Budget Reconciliation of 1987
The largest Social Security Tax Hike in US history - the Reagan Social Security Tax of 1983.
While taxes are a direct hit to the American people that comes right out of their paychecks, by far the biggest tax is the hideous, invisible and unnoticed inflation tax that gave us this:


If America is ever going to be restored to peace, liberty and prosperity for the people, we need drastic changes, starting with severely cutting spending, ending the damn wars that are bankrupt us and reducing government power at all levels. Meanwhile, I'll be pondering why the warmongering foreign policy hawk Mitt Romney, who has vowed to spend trillions more on foreign policy, isn't sending his own sons off to die in neocon wars or come home limbless and minus their junk.


Saturday, July 28, 2012

The Polls are NOT Looking Good for Mittens and it's Not Too Late to Nominate Ron Paul




While it's early in the presidential campaign season and the RNC and DNC national conventions are still a month away, it's not too late for Republicans to change their minds and nominate the only Republican who can defeat Obama - Ron Paul!

In 2008, Obama won 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. That's a total blowout. The gamblers at Intrade, the online gambling company, predicted Obama would win with 364 electoral votes. Intrade was way more accurate than the pundits and pollsters, as noted by the New York Times.

Bettors Beat Pundits

Four years later, it's unlikely that Obama will win by such a whopper of a margin in his bid for reelection, if he wins at all. However, the prospects are excellent that Obama could starve off a Romney victory.

Right now the Intrade bettors are giving Obama a 57.4% probability of winning and Romney a 40.5.

The Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 1.3 but the polls are all over the place.  In any event, the national polls are practically meaningless and what is important is what happens in the critical swing states.  The 2012 president election outcome will be entirely dependent on 6-8 critical swing states.  The top pundits dissect the polls and focus on the electoral count in the individual states.  Three of the top pundits are Nate Silver (New York Times), Larry Sabato (Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Stuart Rothenberg (Rothenberg Political Report).

Nate Silver has Obama winning with 294 electoral votes to Romney's 244 and gives Obama a 67.4% probability of winning to Romney's 32.6.  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, is here.

Larry Sabato has Obama with 247 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 85 toss-ups.  Sabato's analysis and maps are here.

Stuart Rothenberg has Obama with 237 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 95 toss-up.  Rothenberg's analysis is here.

Many states are so reliably blue or red that the outcome is a given.  Once the election kicks into high gear, however, the analysis will intensely concentrate on the following swing states with 100 electoral votes.

Florida             29 RCP average have Obama up by 6
Ohio                18 RCP averages have Obama up by 5
North Carolina 15 RCP averages have Romney up by .4
Virginia            13 RCP averages have Obama up by 1.2
Wisconsin       10  RCP averages have Obama up by 6
Colorado           9 RCP averages have Obama up by 3
Nevada             6 RCP averages have Obama up by 5.3
New Hampshire 4 RCP averages have Obama up by 3

Source:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Romney is only ahead in one swing state and by less than half a point!

At this juncture, things aren't looking good at all for the Republican Party based on the polls, the pundits and Intrade.

To make matters worse, Romney had a disastrous trip to London and got badly panned by the Brits and their media.